“Modelling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation” paper

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Category: Blog

Created on Friday, 27 November 2015 09:25

Our SENSE4US project partners, Aron Larsson and Osama Ibrahim, wrote the "Modelling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation" paper and presented it at the 14th IFIP Electronic Government (EGOV) and 7th Electronic Participation (ePart) Conference 2015 which took place from 30th August to 2nd September 2015 in the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki, Greece.

In this paper we present a work process with associated operational research modeling and analysis tools for the policy formulation stage of the Lindblom policy cycle process model. The approach exploits the use of causal maps for problem structuring and scenario generation of policy options together with decision analysis for evaluating generated scenarios taking preferences of decision makers and stakeholders into account. The benefits of interest when exploiting this integrated modeling approach is to enable for; (i) problem structuring and facilitating understanding and communication of a complex policy problem, (ii) simulation of policy consequences and identification of a smaller set of policy options from a possible very large set of possible options, and (iii) structured decision evaluation of the generated alternative policy options.

The paper has been published in this Springer volume